Roger Martin in an HBR article says that ‘You can not analyze your way to growth‘. Basically he is trying to say that you can not predict growth based on the past data. More often than not past data will predict incremental growth only.
For defining exponential growth, you need to have a sense of the customer and an appreciation for what he needs. He gives examples from the FMCG space where exponential growth was achieved by launching new products that made life easier for the user.
I think analysis is a bit over-rated. While data can give you insights, it can give you only what is available between its blinkers. For new insights you have to depend on your instincts and interactions with your customers. There may not be any data to back up your new insights and that is why the element of risk is associated when you go on to address these insights.